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Uncertainty Reigns in the Lumber Market

Uncertainty Reigns in the Lumber Market

Lumber Market Update: A Waiting Game

With proposed tariffs on Canadian lumber looming, the market is stuck in neutral—engines revving but waiting to see which light turns green. Buyers, sellers, and suppliers alike are in wait-and-see mode, unsure how pricing and supply will shake out.

Will costs spike? Will demand shift?

No one has the answers yet. Even if tariffs are implemented, the uncertainty won’t end. Will mills raise prices in response, or will the market remain flat due to currently weak demand? For now, we’re watching and waiting—but rest assured, we’ll keep you updated as the situation unfolds.

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2025 Lumber Market Outlook

2025 Lumber Market Outlook

Natural disasters like California wildfires and Hurricane Helene are reshaping the U.S. lumber market. While prices have stabilized recently, the demand for rebuilding materials is expected to surge, creating potential fluctuations in supply and costs. With millions of board feet needed for recovery efforts, suppliers face mounting challenges, including resource competition, transportation strain, and sustainability concerns. Now is a critical time for buyers to secure materials as the market prepares for the upcoming battle for building supplies.

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What to Expect from the Lumber Market during the Holidays

What to Expect from the Lumber Market during the Holidays

Holiday trends in the lumber market reveal slower seasonal demand but unique challenges like looming tariffs, mill closures, and slim inventories. With mills planning extended holiday downtime and tight supply heading into 2025, expect steady prices and potential buying opportunities. Discover how the lumber market is poised for a surge in demand after the new year!

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Arizona Ranks #3 in Economic Outlook

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OSB Takes Center Stage: A Lumber Market Analogy

Imagine a crowded dance floor. In the spotlight, there’s one dancer (OSB) stealing the show. Everyone’s watching, impressed by their moves (rapid price increase). That’s been OSB in the lumber market over the last month.

Meanwhile, other lumber products (plywood, dimensional lumber, low grade) are like the bystanders on the dance floor. They’re still around (available), but not getting the same attention (pricing has been relatively steady).

All good dance moves must come to an end when the music subsides. OSB is still on the dancefloor, just not in the spotlight as prices have started to quietly level off (let the slow dances begin).

The Lumber Market Serves as an Economic Indicator

There’s an eerie quiet in the lumber market today mostly driven by uncertainty of the changing economic conditions, and related to new home permits and starts. Single-family home construction in the U.S. saw a significant decline in March.

  • Despite the ongoing shortage of existing homes for sale, new construction is being hindered by rising mortgage rates, leading potential buyers to the dancefloor sidelines.
  • Reducing new homes sales only fuels the fire for more buyer affordability issues.
  • Some multi-family projects are just not penciling out. Multi-family is down significantly over last year, approximately 44 percent.

What does this mean for those needing lumber?

Our team feels like we are in good position to buy lumber right now. While the rest of the nation struggles with weather conditions delaying projects, changing economic conditions, and policy disruptions, Arizona is positioned well with new growth and opportunity.

Trio’s phones are ringing, our trucks are rolling fully loaded out of the lumberyard, our customers are calling consistently with lumber orders.

Right now, our lumber traders are positioned well to negotiate on your behalf and deliver confident quotes to you for your lumber purchases.

 

Arizona State Flag

Arizona Ranks # 3 in Economic Outlook

 

Did you know there’s a report card for states based on their economic health

and Arizona is at the top of the list?

The annual “Rich States, Poor States” index ranks all 50 states on factors that impact growth. Strong economies are built on a solid foundation!

This report highlights how states with lower taxes, less debt, and free-market principles tend to attract more residents and businesses. That translates to a growing community, which is great news for everyone! After all, a thriving community means more opportunities and a brighter future for everyone in the industries we serve.

Read more about the Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook for Arizona

Cover page of Rich States Poor States Publications

Arizona Ranks #3 in Economic Outlook

Arizona is currently ranked 3rd in the United States for its economic outlook. This is a forward-looking forecast based on the state’s standing (equal-weighted average) in 15 important state policy variables. Data reflect state and local rates and revenues and any effect of federal deductibility.

Arizona Ranks #4 in Economic Performance

Arizona is currently ranked 4th in the United States for its economic performance. This rank is a backward-looking measure based on the state’s performance (equal-weighted average) in three important performance variables shown below. These variables are highly influenced by state policy.

As you dive into the key economic policy variables, think of it like navigating the twists and turns of the lumber market.

Just as lumber prices can signal shifts in construction and housing demand, these variables reveal the strategies that make states thrive or falter.

From the impact of tax cuts to the smart moves of debt reduction and free market flair, every page is a rollercoaster ride through the forces shaping our economic landscape.

 

Arizona Summary Page from Rich States Poor States

 

Way to Go Arizona! 

Click here to visit the website and download your free copy of Rich States, Poor States

Authored by economic powerhouses Dr. Arthur B. Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams, this annual report isn’t just a playbook—

it’s a game-changer for state economies.