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What Does the New Administration Mean for the Lumber Market

What Does the New Administration Mean for the Lumber Market

The lumber market has seen unexpected activity this holiday season, with OSB and 2×6 prices rising due to strong demand, mill closures, and limited supply. Typically a quieter time, this shift highlights the impact of industry dynamics as mills focus on higher-margin products.

Looking ahead, the housing market will play a critical role in shaping lumber prices. Challenges like restrictive zoning, labor shortages, and tariffs remain hurdles for builders. However, post-election optimism is growing, with expectations of regulatory relief and increased homebuilding in 2025. Builder confidence has steadily risen, signaling potential growth for the construction industry.

For those with projects in the pipeline, now is the time to act. Prices may remain steady or increase further, so securing materials early could save both time and money. As we prepare for the coming year, staying informed will be key to navigating these market changes effectively.

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It’s a Good Time to Buy Lumber

It’s a Good Time to Buy Lumber

While stability has returned, factors like recent mill closures and global shifts could still stir up trouble. If you have a project in the pipeline, it’s a good time to secure your lumber packages and stay ahead of any unexpected changes.

Let Trio Forest Products guide you through any lingering uncertainties this Halloween season with confidence and resilience.

Happy Halloween from Trio Forest Products Inc

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Arizona Ranks #3 in Economic Outlook

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OSB Takes Center Stage: A Lumber Market Analogy

Imagine a crowded dance floor. In the spotlight, there’s one dancer (OSB) stealing the show. Everyone’s watching, impressed by their moves (rapid price increase). That’s been OSB in the lumber market over the last month.

Meanwhile, other lumber products (plywood, dimensional lumber, low grade) are like the bystanders on the dance floor. They’re still around (available), but not getting the same attention (pricing has been relatively steady).

All good dance moves must come to an end when the music subsides. OSB is still on the dancefloor, just not in the spotlight as prices have started to quietly level off (let the slow dances begin).

The Lumber Market Serves as an Economic Indicator

There’s an eerie quiet in the lumber market today mostly driven by uncertainty of the changing economic conditions, and related to new home permits and starts. Single-family home construction in the U.S. saw a significant decline in March.

  • Despite the ongoing shortage of existing homes for sale, new construction is being hindered by rising mortgage rates, leading potential buyers to the dancefloor sidelines.
  • Reducing new homes sales only fuels the fire for more buyer affordability issues.
  • Some multi-family projects are just not penciling out. Multi-family is down significantly over last year, approximately 44 percent.

What does this mean for those needing lumber?

Our team feels like we are in good position to buy lumber right now. While the rest of the nation struggles with weather conditions delaying projects, changing economic conditions, and policy disruptions, Arizona is positioned well with new growth and opportunity.

Trio’s phones are ringing, our trucks are rolling fully loaded out of the lumberyard, our customers are calling consistently with lumber orders.

Right now, our lumber traders are positioned well to negotiate on your behalf and deliver confident quotes to you for your lumber purchases.

 

Arizona State Flag

Arizona Ranks # 3 in Economic Outlook

 

Did you know there’s a report card for states based on their economic health

and Arizona is at the top of the list?

The annual “Rich States, Poor States” index ranks all 50 states on factors that impact growth. Strong economies are built on a solid foundation!

This report highlights how states with lower taxes, less debt, and free-market principles tend to attract more residents and businesses. That translates to a growing community, which is great news for everyone! After all, a thriving community means more opportunities and a brighter future for everyone in the industries we serve.

Read more about the Rich States, Poor States Economic Outlook for Arizona

Cover page of Rich States Poor States Publications

Arizona Ranks #3 in Economic Outlook

Arizona is currently ranked 3rd in the United States for its economic outlook. This is a forward-looking forecast based on the state’s standing (equal-weighted average) in 15 important state policy variables. Data reflect state and local rates and revenues and any effect of federal deductibility.

Arizona Ranks #4 in Economic Performance

Arizona is currently ranked 4th in the United States for its economic performance. This rank is a backward-looking measure based on the state’s performance (equal-weighted average) in three important performance variables shown below. These variables are highly influenced by state policy.

As you dive into the key economic policy variables, think of it like navigating the twists and turns of the lumber market.

Just as lumber prices can signal shifts in construction and housing demand, these variables reveal the strategies that make states thrive or falter.

From the impact of tax cuts to the smart moves of debt reduction and free market flair, every page is a rollercoaster ride through the forces shaping our economic landscape.

 

Arizona Summary Page from Rich States Poor States

 

Way to Go Arizona! 

Click here to visit the website and download your free copy of Rich States, Poor States

Authored by economic powerhouses Dr. Arthur B. Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams, this annual report isn’t just a playbook—

it’s a game-changer for state economies.