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Finding Balance in Today’s Lumber Market

Finding Balance in Today’s Lumber Market

The lumber market today leaves wholesalers wedged between mill slowdowns, tariffs, and softer demand. At Trio, we explore what it will take to restore balance — from stable housing starts to consistent mill production — and how smart inventory management can benefit customers.

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Warning:  13% Anti Dumping Duty Hits

Warning: 13% Anti Dumping Duty Hits

As we rolled into July, lumber prices across framing, low grade, OSB, and structural panels showed signs of finding a bottom and beginning to bounce. But bigger waves are on the horizon: with AR6 trade rulings set to take effect, coupled with wildfire impacts, limited log supply, and mill curtailments, price disruptions are expected. Now may be the time to buy ahead of the forecasted 13%–21% increases.

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Lumber Market On Edge:  What Customers Need to Know

Lumber Market On Edge: What Customers Need to Know

Lumber prices are at their lowest levels in months—but that may not last. With new trade duties on the horizon and possible mill shutdowns already underway, supply could tighten fast. In this market update, we break down what’s happening, what’s coming, and why now is a smart time to buy if you’ve got upcoming jobs. Don’t wait until prices spike—get ahead of the curve with Trio’s insights.

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August Lumber Market Price Commentary

ACF Type: wysiwyg

Unlike other industries, the current lumber market offers some stability and our team finds this truly fascinating. 

Here’s what continues to be true:

Prices can go up, down or stay the same.

The last several years we have experienced unprecedented lumber market volatility.  2023 has brought more stability to lumber market prices as evidenced in the graphs attached. .

With all of the uncertainty in the economy, one would potentially predict extreme buyer caution and low demand to bring prices to rock bottom. Prices have adjusted but they are certainly not rock bottom and demand continues to be better than expected in both the residential and commercial sectors.

We are experiencing a conflicted lumber market that has chosen stability vs. volatility to maneuver in uncharted territory. The uncertainty is keeping mill orders to a minimum because end users are buying only what they need. Current demand does not seem to be higher than supply. Expect some mills to attempt to influence the market with curtailments and closures soon.

  • Residential July Housing Starts Up and Permits Down
    Multi-family July Starts Down and Permits Down
    Builder confidence holds steady in residential and commercial based on housing need.