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Uncertainty Reigns in the Lumber Market

Uncertainty Reigns in the Lumber Market

Lumber Market Update: A Waiting Game

With proposed tariffs on Canadian lumber looming, the market is stuck in neutral—engines revving but waiting to see which light turns green. Buyers, sellers, and suppliers alike are in wait-and-see mode, unsure how pricing and supply will shake out.

Will costs spike? Will demand shift?

No one has the answers yet. Even if tariffs are implemented, the uncertainty won’t end. Will mills raise prices in response, or will the market remain flat due to currently weak demand? For now, we’re watching and waiting—but rest assured, we’ll keep you updated as the situation unfolds.

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2025 Lumber Market Outlook

2025 Lumber Market Outlook

Natural disasters like California wildfires and Hurricane Helene are reshaping the U.S. lumber market. While prices have stabilized recently, the demand for rebuilding materials is expected to surge, creating potential fluctuations in supply and costs. With millions of board feet needed for recovery efforts, suppliers face mounting challenges, including resource competition, transportation strain, and sustainability concerns. Now is a critical time for buyers to secure materials as the market prepares for the upcoming battle for building supplies.

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What to Expect from the Lumber Market during the Holidays

What to Expect from the Lumber Market during the Holidays

Holiday trends in the lumber market reveal slower seasonal demand but unique challenges like looming tariffs, mill closures, and slim inventories. With mills planning extended holiday downtime and tight supply heading into 2025, expect steady prices and potential buying opportunities. Discover how the lumber market is poised for a surge in demand after the new year!

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Finding Balance in Today’s Lumber Market

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Logs with Trio Forest Products logo and script

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⚖️ Finding Balance in Today’s Lumber Market

At Trio, we often say we’re “in the middle” — between the mills who manufacture lumber and the contractors, pallet makers, and builders who rely on us daily. Right now, that middle position is more challenging than usual.

  • Mills are cutting back production, some moving to three-day work weeks. This helps keep supply in check but also puts pressure on mill employees and communities who depend on steady work.

  • Tariffs continue to add friction, keeping prices higher than they might otherwise be in a low-demand environment.

  • Customers are feeling the other side of the squeeze: softer demand, tighter budgets, and hesitation to carry inventory.

What we’d all like to see is a healthy, balanced market — one where mills can run profitably, wholesalers can manage risk without being overexposed, and customers can count on reasonable prices for the lumber they need.

Our job in the middle is to balance both sides: honoring mill partnerships while protecting our customers from volatility. It isn’t easy — but it’s the role Trio was built for.

What a Healthy Market Looks Like

The lumber market feels off-balance — but what does “healthy” really mean for mills, wholesalers, and customers?

  • Mills operating profitably, with steady production that provides jobs and reliable supply.

  • Wholesalers managing inventory with confidence — not sitting on excess risk, but ready to deliver when customers need product.

  • Customers accessing lumber at fair prices that allow their businesses to grow.

At Trio, we believe the best market is one where everyone in the supply chain wins. That’s what we continue working toward every day.

The Road Back to Balance 

So what will it take to get there?

A Stable Housing Market

  • Housing starts need to normalize as interest rates settle. Builders can’t fully commit until costs and demand line up more clearly.

Consistent Mill Production

  • Mills running at efficient, steady levels (instead of big swings) create stability across the supply chain.

Tariff Resolution

  • Fewer artificial barriers would help align North American supply with actual demand.

Smart Inventory Management

  • Both mills and wholesalers must carefully balance production and stocking levels.

Trio is committed to keeping customers supplied without passing on unnecessary risk.

💡 Looking Forward

The road back to balance won’t be overnight — but by keeping lines of communication open, working closely with mills, and serving our customers with honesty and reliability, we believe the market will find its way back to a healthier middle ground.

At Trio, we remain focused on navigating this middle position in a way that serves both sides well — because when mills, wholesalers, and customers all thrive together, the entire industry is stronger.

Today’s Lumber Market 

Today’s lumber market continues to present bottom-line pricing with relatively low risk, making it an opportune time to purchase for upcoming projects. For many customers, this environment brings a welcome sense of relief — both in pricing and in the ability to make immediate, confident buying decisions!