Tariff shifts, Canadian exemptions, and supply chain woes shake the lumber market. Find out how it impacts prices, housing, and builder plans.
Lumber Tariffs Update
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Uncertainty Reigns in the Lumber Market
Lumber Market Update: A Waiting Game
With proposed tariffs on Canadian lumber looming, the market is stuck in neutral—engines revving but waiting to see which light turns green. Buyers, sellers, and suppliers alike are in wait-and-see mode, unsure how pricing and supply will shake out.
Will costs spike? Will demand shift?
No one has the answers yet. Even if tariffs are implemented, the uncertainty won’t end. Will mills raise prices in response, or will the market remain flat due to currently weak demand? For now, we’re watching and waiting—but rest assured, we’ll keep you updated as the situation unfolds.
2025 Lumber Market Outlook
Natural disasters like California wildfires and Hurricane Helene are reshaping the U.S. lumber market. While prices have stabilized recently, the demand for rebuilding materials is expected to surge, creating potential fluctuations in supply and costs. With millions of board feet needed for recovery efforts, suppliers face mounting challenges, including resource competition, transportation strain, and sustainability concerns. Now is a critical time for buyers to secure materials as the market prepares for the upcoming battle for building supplies.
OSB Prices Skyrocket in March 2024
OSB prices are skyrocketing due to tight supplies and increasing demand
As we explore the ever changing terrain of the lumber industry, it’s crucial to recognize its inherent commodity-based nature.
While we’ve savored a period of price stability, the winds of change are blowing. February brought a surge in housing numbers, prompting mills to adjust their conservative supply, setting the stage for the shifts we’re witnessing today in the OSB market.
With mills booked well into May and beyond, buyers are facing challenges in securing enough material for upcoming projects. Some mills offering open market availability are demanding prices over $100/m higher than current rates. $100/m equates to $3.20 per sheet.
Plywood Market Update:
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The plywood market is strengthening and prices are on the rise.
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Spring Demand: Increasing demand driven by spring season is contributing to the uptick in prices.
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Order File Extensions: Producers are extending order files, with some reaching as far as mid April.
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Price Trends: While Random Lengths reports flat prices or slight increases, overall market changes reflect a significant shift of $40 to $60 since early March.
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For now, make sure your near-term needs are covered, consider adding a little more to your inventory levels and keep an eye on your plywood costs as compared to OSB.
We anticipate the market will continue to increase as we move forward into Spring.
OSB and Other Market Observations:
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OSB rapid price surges amidst serious supply constraints and growing demand. Buyers scrambling to cover upcoming jobs will likely find themselves falling short of their needs due to both limited resources and escalating costs.
Dimensional Lumber:
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In the world of lumber, the OSB sector has been booming, but it seems like the dimensional lumber market may have hit a plateau. Our forecast suggests that there’s a need for the dimensional market to absorb some inventory, which will enhance purchasing convenience and availability.
Once this inventory digestion process is complete, prepare yourselves for a slight uptick in prices.
Test your lumber knowledge: Which is stronger, plywood or OSB?
Click here to find the answer and other valuable Panel Resources
In the applications for which they are manufactured, the two products are basically interchangeable. Although different in the way they are made and appear, plywood and OSB are manufactured according to the same performance standard criteria.