Uncertainty Reigns in the Lumber Market

Mar 3, 2025

Lumber Market Update: A Waiting Game

With proposed tariffs on Canadian lumber looming, the market is stuck in neutral—engines revving but waiting to see which light turns green. Buyers, sellers, and suppliers alike are in wait-and-see mode, unsure how pricing and supply will shake out.

Will costs spike? Will demand shift?

No one has the answers yet. Even if tariffs are implemented, the uncertainty won’t end. Will mills raise prices in response, or will the market remain flat due to currently weak demand? For now, we’re watching and waiting—but rest assured, we’ll keep you updated as the situation unfolds.

2025 Lumber Market Outlook

Jan 27, 2025

Natural disasters like California wildfires and Hurricane Helene are reshaping the U.S. lumber market. While prices have stabilized recently, the demand for rebuilding materials is expected to surge, creating potential fluctuations in supply and costs. With millions of board feet needed for recovery efforts, suppliers face mounting challenges, including resource competition, transportation strain, and sustainability concerns. Now is a critical time for buyers to secure materials as the market prepares for the upcoming battle for building supplies.

What to Expect from the Lumber Market during the Holidays

Dec 13, 2024

Holiday trends in the lumber market reveal slower seasonal demand but unique challenges like looming tariffs, mill closures, and slim inventories. With mills planning extended holiday downtime and tight supply heading into 2025, expect steady prices and potential buying opportunities. Discover how the lumber market is poised for a surge in demand after the new year!

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Ready and Excited to Head Into 2025!

Now that we have clarity around the new administration, many are wondering: what’s next for the lumber market? As we all know, the lumber market is deeply tied to the housing industry. With housing affordability at the forefront of economic discussions, recent insights from NAR and builder articles shed light on how this issue may be addressed. The proposed solutions—lift regulations and build more homes—sound simple in theory, but like Grandma’s Thanksgiving stuffing, there are plenty of ingredients to consider. Factors like interest rates, resistance to downsizing among elderly homeowners (the silver tsunami is not coming), and potential tariffs driving up building supply costs all play a role in this complex recipe.

If home price growth continues at the current pace, “America will be completely divided,” said Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

The solution? “More supply”

Key points:

Yun said the country could become like the Bay Area “where few are getting tremendous wealth” if we don’t boost supply.

Additionally, deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz warned that “the silver tsunami is not coming” and that “we have to just build more homes.”

Yun predicts that mortgage rates will stick around 6% in the near term and said buyers won’t see 3-4% rates again.

Re strictive zoning limits building, and he predicted that an upcoming Trump administration may take a position of less regulation to make it easier for builders to construct more housing.

Builders more optimistic about home sales post-election:

After bottoming out in August, builder confidence has risen steadily this fall. That trend is expected to continue now that the presidential election is over, giving the industry more certainty about what to expect in 2025 and beyond

Tariffs, labor shortages and other challenges

‘Regulatory relief’ expected.

The Labor Shortage Challenge

Another critical ingredient is the ongoing labor shortage, which continues to impact the construction industry. Immigration policy plays a significant role in the availability of skilled labor, and uncertainty or restrictive measures can exacerbate the problem. Builders are finding it increasingly challenging to staff projects, leading to delays and rising costs. Addressing this shortage will be key to meeting housing demand and .stabilizing the market.