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The lumber market is entering a new chapter in 2026, shaped by rising R&R demand, shifting weather patterns, policy changes, labor challenges, and evolving buyer demographics. Trio breaks down the key factors to watch—and what they mean for pricing, supply, and builder confidence in the year ahead.
The lumber market today leaves wholesalers wedged between mill slowdowns, tariffs, and softer demand. At Trio, we explore what it will take to restore balance — from stable housing starts to consistent mill production — and how smart inventory management can benefit customers.
As we rolled into July, lumber prices across framing, low grade, OSB, and structural panels showed signs of finding a bottom and beginning to bounce. But bigger waves are on the horizon: with AR6 trade rulings set to take effect, coupled with wildfire impacts, limited log supply, and mill curtailments, price disruptions are expected. Now may be the time to buy ahead of the forecasted 13%–21% increases.