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Finding Balance in Today’s Lumber Market

Finding Balance in Today’s Lumber Market

The lumber market today leaves wholesalers wedged between mill slowdowns, tariffs, and softer demand. At Trio, we explore what it will take to restore balance — from stable housing starts to consistent mill production — and how smart inventory management can benefit customers.

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Warning:  13% Anti Dumping Duty Hits

Warning: 13% Anti Dumping Duty Hits

As we rolled into July, lumber prices across framing, low grade, OSB, and structural panels showed signs of finding a bottom and beginning to bounce. But bigger waves are on the horizon: with AR6 trade rulings set to take effect, coupled with wildfire impacts, limited log supply, and mill curtailments, price disruptions are expected. Now may be the time to buy ahead of the forecasted 13%–21% increases.

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Trio’s Phones are Lighting Up with Strong First Quarter Inquiries

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Recent developments have brought about noteworthy changes across various segments.

OSB: A Rollercoaster of Prices

Oriented Strand Board (OSB) recently experienced a significant downturn, prompting a swift sell-off for those with wood in their inventories. However, the market appears to have stabilized, witnessing a noteworthy $10/M surge within a single week. This unexpected turnaround has led some distributors to quote prices that are strikingly $100/M over the printed rates, signaling a rapid and robust recovery in the OSB market.

Structural Panel: Steadfast Resilience

Amidst market fluctuations, structural panel prices have shown remarkable resilience by maintaining a consistent flat trajectory. This stability suggests a sustained demand for these materials, positioning structural panels as a reliable choice amidst the broader volatility in the lumber market.

Framing Lumber: A Picture of Stability

Framing lumber, true to its name, is exhibiting unwavering stability, staying as flat as a board. This consistent performance provides a sense of dependability within this segment, offering reassurance to stakeholders amid the dynamic movements observed in other areas of the lumber market.

Low Grade: Returning to the Norm

Low-grade lumber, after a period of fluctuation, is now returning to its historic norm, characterized by minimal movement. This newfound steadiness adds a layer of predictability to this segment, potentially offering stability to those engaged in the low-grade lumber market.

First Quarter 2024 Outlook: Optimism Prevails

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, the lumber market shows promise with quotes and orders steadily streaming in. The heightened level of activity is keeping industry phones busy, reflecting an optimistic outlook and potentially indicating robust demand as the new year unfolds.

As we navigate these trends, stay tuned for continued updates on the dynamic shifts shaping the lumber market’s landscape.